Al Khaleej vs Al Riyadh
Saudi Professional League, Saudi-Arabia · 2026-09-07 · 17:30 CET
LLDDD
WLDWDThe score model made an Al Khaleej win the most likely outcome at 46%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 54%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Al Khaleej 1.63 – 1.21 Al Riyadh.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Khaleej win | 46.0% | 42.0% | +4.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.4% | 26.6% | -0.2% | ✓ |
| Al Riyadh win | 27.6% | 31.4% | -3.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54.0% | 53.8% | +0.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31.7% | 32.9% | -1.2% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 57.4% | 57.5% | -0.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.6% | 35.1% | +2.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Al Khaleej 46.5 / Al Riyadh 43.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.