Al Hilal vs Neom SC
Saudi Professional League, Saudi-Arabia · 2026-09-07 · 20:00 CET
WWLWW
LWWWDThe score model made an Al Hilal win the most likely outcome at 74%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 63%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Al Hilal 2.47 – 0.78 Neom SC.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Hilal win | 73.7% | 78.5% | -4.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 17.1% | 14.5% | +2.6% | ✗ |
| Neom SC win | 9.2% | 7.0% | +2.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.0% | 66.1% | -3.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40.8% | 45.5% | -4.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 50.2% | 46.2% | +4.0% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 42.0% | 45.5% | -3.5% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Al Hilal 46.4 / Neom SC 27.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.