Al Ittihad vs Al Nassr
Saudi Professional League, Saudi-Arabia · 2026-09-05 · 20:00 CET
WWWWL
WLWDWThe score model made an Al Nassr win the most likely outcome at 55%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 65%). It finished 2:1 (HT 2:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Al Ittihad 1.29 – 2.05 Al Nassr.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Ittihad win | 23.0% | 17.8% | +5.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 22.5% | 19.8% | +2.7% | ✗ |
| Al Nassr win | 54.5% | 62.4% | -7.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 85.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 64.9% | 68.1% | -3.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 42.9% | 48.3% | -5.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 63.7% | 63.0% | +0.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.8% | — | — | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Al Ittihad 45.2 / Al Nassr 45.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.