Al Shabab vs Al Hilal
Saudi Professional League, Saudi-Arabia · 2026-09-04 · 20:00 CET
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WWLWWThe score model made an Al Hilal win the most likely outcome at 68%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 69%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Al Shabab 1.05 – 2.49 Al Hilal.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Shabab win | 13.5% | 11.2% | +2.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 18.3% | 16.3% | +1.9% | ✗ |
| Al Hilal win | 68.2% | 72.5% | -4.2% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 87.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 68.8% | 71.4% | -2.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 47.3% | 51.7% | -4.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 60.3% | 58.9% | +1.3% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 83.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 55.1% | 49.6% | +5.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Al Shabab 45.2 / Al Hilal 45.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.