Al Ahli SC vs Al Riyadh
Saudi Professional League, Saudi-Arabia · 2026-09-04 · 20:00 CET
WWWWL
WLLDWThe score model makes an Al Ahli SC win the most likely outcome at 77%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 62%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Al Ahli SC 2.50 – 0.68 Al Riyadh.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Al Ahli SC win | 76.5% | — | — |
| Draw | 15.9% | — | — |
| Al Riyadh win | 7.6% | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.7% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39.4% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 46.0% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.2% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.3% | — | — |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Al Ahli SC 42.3 / Al Riyadh 43.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.