Al Ahli SC vs Al Riyadh
Saudi Professional League, Saudi-Arabia · 2026-09-04 · 20:00 CET
LWLWW
WLDWDThe score model made an Al Ahli SC win the most likely outcome at 76%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 61%). It finished 5:0 (HT 3:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Al Ahli SC 2.47 – 0.70 Al Riyadh.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Ahli SC win | 75.6% | 72.8% | +2.8% | ✓ |
| Draw | 16.4% | 16.6% | -0.2% | ✗ |
| Al Riyadh win | 8.0% | 10.6% | -2.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 83.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 61.4% | 62.0% | -0.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39.1% | 41.4% | -2.4% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 46.6% | 49.7% | -3.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 41.5% | 43.6% | -2.1% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Al Ahli SC 42.9 / Al Riyadh 42.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.