Abha vs Al Ettifaq
Saudi Professional League, Saudi-Arabia · 2026-09-04 · 18:00 CET
DLLLD
LWDDDThe score model made an Al Ettifaq win the most likely outcome at 58%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 63%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Abha 1.18 – 2.09 Al Ettifaq.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abha win | 20.1% | 38.0% | -17.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 22.2% | 25.9% | -3.7% | ✗ |
| Al Ettifaq win | 57.7% | 36.1% | +21.6% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.4% | 58.8% | +4.6% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 41.2% | 37.9% | +3.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 61.3% | 62.1% | -0.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 71.8% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.4% | 39.3% | -1.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Abha 11.7 / Al Ettifaq 45.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.