Al Fayha vs Al Kholood
Saudi Professional League, Saudi-Arabia · 2026-09-03 · 17:55 CET
LLLLD
LDDWDThe score model makes a Al Fayha win the most likely outcome at 41%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Al Fayha 1.38 – 1.18 Al Kholood.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Al Fayha win | 40.7% | — | — |
| Draw | 28.1% | — | — |
| Al Kholood win | 31.2% | — | — |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.4% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.3% | — | — |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.7% | — | — |
| Both teams to score | 52.8% | — | — |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.5% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.2% | — | — |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Al Fayha 45 / Al Kholood 37.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.