Al Hilal vs Al Ahli SC
Saudi Professional League, Saudi-Arabia · 2026-09-01 · 20:00 CET
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WWWWLThe score model makes an Al Hilal win the most likely outcome at 47%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 58%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Al Ahli SC win — 27.7% vs 23.4% implied (+4.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Al Hilal 1.74 – 1.29 Al Ahli SC.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Al Hilal win | 47.3% | 53.1% | -5.8% |
| Draw | 25.0% | 23.5% | +1.5% |
| Al Ahli SC win | 27.7% | 23.4% | +4.2% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.2% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.2% | 61.1% | -2.9% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.8% | 39.9% | -4.1% |
| Both teams to score | 60.4% | 61.0% | -0.7% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.1% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.2% | 41.5% | -1.3% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Al Hilal 45.3 / Al Ahli SC 42.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.