Al Hilal vs Al Ahli SC
Saudi Professional League, Saudi-Arabia · 2026-09-01 · 20:00 CET
WWLWW
LWLWWThe score model made an Al Hilal win the most likely outcome at 47%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 58%). It finished 3:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Al Hilal 1.74 – 1.29 Al Ahli SC.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Hilal win | 47.3% | 61.6% | -14.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.1% | 20.7% | +4.4% | ✗ |
| Al Ahli SC win | 27.6% | 17.7% | +9.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.3% | 64.5% | -6.3% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.9% | 43.6% | -7.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 60.5% | 60.3% | +0.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.3% | 42.9% | -2.6% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Al Hilal 45 / Al Ahli SC 42.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.