Al Hazem vs Al Shabab
Saudi Professional League, Saudi-Arabia · 2026-08-30 · 18:05 CET
DDDWL
DDLLDThe score model made an Al Shabab win the most likely outcome at 46%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 56%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Al Hazem 1.27 – 1.68 Al Shabab.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Hazem win | 28.2% | 26.3% | +2.0% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.5% | 25.0% | +0.6% | ✓ |
| Al Shabab win | 46.2% | 48.8% | -2.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56.4% | 56.5% | -0.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34.0% | 35.3% | -1.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 59.2% | 58.3% | +0.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.8% | 38.6% | -0.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Al Hazem 31 / Al Shabab 44.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.