Al Fateh vs Al Ittihad
Saudi Professional League, Saudi-Arabia · 2026-08-29 · 20:00 CET
WDLLD
LLDWWThe score model makes an Al Ittihad win the most likely outcome at 51%, leaning to goals (Over 2.5 at 58%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 64.8% vs 58.4% implied (+6.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Al Fateh 1.18 – 1.81 Al Ittihad.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Al Fateh win | 24.1% | 26.3% | -2.2% |
| Draw | 24.4% | 24.1% | +0.3% |
| Al Ittihad win | 51.4% | 49.6% | +1.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 80.7% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.6% | 61.6% | -4.0% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.2% | 41.6% | -6.4% |
| Both teams to score | 58.7% | 62.5% | -3.8% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 72.7% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.5% | 42.1% | -3.6% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Al Fateh 45.5 / Al Ittihad 45 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.