Al Riyadh vs Neom SC
Saudi Professional League, Saudi-Arabia · 2026-08-28 · 17:50 CET
DWLDW
LLWWWThe score model made a Neom SC win the most likely outcome at 45%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). It finished 1:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Al Riyadh 1.10 – 1.46 Neom SC.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Riyadh win | 27.6% | 25.3% | +2.3% | ✓ |
| Draw | 27.7% | 25.8% | +1.9% | ✗ |
| Neom SC win | 44.7% | 48.8% | -4.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.3% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.1% | 55.4% | -8.3% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.5% | 34.2% | -8.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 52.0% | 57.6% | -5.7% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.9% | 37.2% | -7.3% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Al Riyadh 42.4 / Neom SC 26.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.