Al Riyadh vs Neom SC
Saudi Professional League, Saudi-Arabia · 2026-08-28 · 17:50 CET
DWLLD
LDWWLThe score model makes an Neom SC win the most likely outcome at 45%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 74.6% vs 65.1% implied (+9.4 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Al Riyadh 1.10 – 1.46 Neom SC.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Al Riyadh win | 27.7% | 24.0% | +3.7% |
| Draw | 27.5% | 24.7% | +2.8% |
| Neom SC win | 44.8% | 51.2% | -6.5% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.1% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 47.0% | 55.9% | -8.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.4% | 34.9% | -9.4% |
| Both teams to score | 51.8% | 57.4% | -5.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 65.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.9% | 38.3% | -8.4% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Al Riyadh 42.6 / Neom SC 26.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the data leans above the market — the market usually knows why.
Track your pick
My record →Flat 1u, average market odds, settled either way. Not betting advice — a record, like ours.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.