Al Adalah vs Al Jandal
Division 1, Saudi-Arabia · 2026-09-15 · 17:30 CET
DWLDW
LWLDDThe score model made an Al Adalah win the most likely outcome at 48%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 59%). It finished 1:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Al Adalah 1.78 – 1.29 Al Jandal.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Adalah win | 48.1% | 43.7% | +4.4% | ✓ |
| Draw | 24.9% | 26.9% | -1.9% | ✗ |
| Al Jandal win | 27.0% | 29.4% | -2.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 82.0% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 59.3% | 54.2% | +5.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 36.9% | 34.6% | +2.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 61.2% | 58.7% | +2.4% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 76.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 43.1% | 37.7% | +5.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Al Adalah 41.7 / Al Jandal 41.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Al Adalah vs Al Jandal in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.