Al Najma vs Al Raed
Division 1, Saudi-Arabia · 2026-09-14 · 19:20 CET
DDDDW
LWDLWThe score model made an Al Raed win the most likely outcome at 40%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 58%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Al Najma 1.44 – 1.56 Al Raed.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Najma win | 34.4% | 38.8% | -4.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.9% | 27.5% | -1.6% | ✓ |
| Al Raed win | 39.6% | 33.7% | +5.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.7% | 48.7% | +9.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.3% | 28.5% | +6.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 61.2% | 53.7% | +7.5% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.6% | 33.7% | +6.0% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Al Najma 20.1 / Al Raed 25.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Al Najma vs Al Raed in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.