Al Jandal vs Al Bukiryah
Division 1, Saudi-Arabia · 2026-09-09 · 18:10 CET
LWLDD
LLLLLThe score model made an Al Bukiryah win the most likely outcome at 40%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 36%). It finished 4:1 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Al Jandal 0.94 – 1.18 Al Bukiryah.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Al Jandal win | 28.1% | 37.0% | -8.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 31.6% | 30.2% | +1.4% | ✗ |
| Al Bukiryah win | 40.3% | 32.7% | +7.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 63.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35.6% | 42.3% | -6.7% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16.5% | 23.0% | -6.5% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 43.3% | 49.6% | -6.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.5% | 29.7% | -0.2% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Al Jandal 41.2 / Al Bukiryah 41.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.