Lokomotiv Moscow vs Krylya Sovetov
Premier League, Russia · 2026-09-16 · 19:45 CET
WLDWD
DWDDLThe score model made a Lokomotiv Moscow win the most likely outcome at 59%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 63%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Lokomotiv Moscow 2.11 – 1.14 Krylya Sovetov.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lokomotiv Moscow win | 58.8% | 50.6% | +8.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 22.4% | 25.3% | -3.0% | ✓ |
| Krylya Sovetov win | 18.9% | 24.0% | -5.2% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 84.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63.1% | 54.3% | +8.8% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 40.9% | 32.5% | +8.3% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 60.7% | 55.9% | +4.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 79.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 44.1% | 35.9% | +8.1% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Lokomotiv Moscow 41 / Krylya Sovetov 42 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Lokomotiv Moscow vs Krylya Sovetov in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.