Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 27 OctBiggest divergence
Lokomotiv Moscow – Spartak Moscow+16.7%
Home win · data 38% vs market 21%
Fastest starters
Rodina Moscow23%
3 of their 13 goals before 15′ — highest share in the league
Late-goal kings
Akron Togliatti53%
9 of their 17 goals after 75′ — highest share in the league
The season in numbers
Market mispricing
+23.9%Draws paid out more than the market charged: +23.9% at market prices across 100 matches. 1 other market also came out ahead; the rest returned less than they cost.
Most underrated by results
-7.4 ptsFakel Voronezh produced performances worth 7 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Fast starts
35%Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 31.9' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Lokomotiv Moscow – Spartak Moscow2026-11-01 16:45Home winModel 37.6%Implied 20.9%▲ +16.7%- Orenburg – CSKA Moscow2026-11-01 10:00Under 2.5Model 56.8%Implied 44.8%▲ +12.0%
- Rubin Kazan – Fakel Voronezh2026-10-31 12:15BTTS: NoModel 65.6%Implied 58.8%▲ +6.7%
- Dynamo Makhachkala – FK Rostov2026-11-01 12:15Under 1.5 HTModel 79.3%Implied 75.8%▲ +3.5%
- Baltika – Akron Togliatti2026-11-01 14:30Over 2.5Model 49.1%Implied 46.1%▲ +3.1%
- Krylya Sovetov – Zenit2026-11-02 15:00Under 2.5Model 45.9%Implied 43.9%▲ +2.1%
- Dynamo Moscow – Akhmat Grozny2026-10-31 14:30Over 1.5 HTModel 43.9%Implied 41.8%▲ +2.0%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Lokomotiv Moscow– Spartak Moscow | 2026-11-01 | 16:45 | Home win | 37.6% | 20.9% | ▲ +16.7% | 4.78 |
| 2 |  Orenburg– CSKA Moscow | 2026-11-01 | 10:00 | Under 2.5 | 56.8% | 44.8% | ▲ +12.0% | 2.23 |
| 3 |  Rubin Kazan– Fakel Voronezh | 2026-10-31 | 12:15 | BTTS: No | 65.6% | 58.8% | ▲ +6.7% | 1.70 |
| 4 |  Dynamo Makhachkala– FK Rostov | 2026-11-01 | 12:15 | Under 1.5 HT | 79.3% | 75.8% | ▲ +3.5% | 1.32 |
| 5 |  Baltika– Akron Togliatti | 2026-11-01 | 14:30 | Over 2.5 | 49.1% | 46.1% | ▲ +3.1% | 2.17 |
| 6 |  Krylya Sovetov– Zenit | 2026-11-02 | 15:00 | Under 2.5 | 45.9% | 43.9% | ▲ +2.1% | 2.28 |
| 7 |  Dynamo Moscow– Akhmat Grozny | 2026-10-31 | 14:30 | Over 1.5 HT | 43.9% | 41.8% | ▲ +2.0% | 2.39 |
Add Premier League fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 27 OctWe simulate the remaining Premier League schedule 10,000 times a day. Zenit win the 2026-2027 title in 59% of them, projecting ~64 points; Krasnodar are next at 15%. At the other end, Fakel Voronezh finish in the bottom three in 97% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zenit | 27 | 64 | 57–70 | 59% | 98% | — |
| 2 |  Krasnodar | 24 | 58 | 52–65 | 15% | 85% | — |
| 3 | CSKA Moscow | 28 | 58 | 51–65 | 14% | 83% | — |
| 4 | Dynamo Moscow | 25 | 56 | 49–62 | 6% | 69% | — |
| 5 | Spartak Moscow | 23 | 54 | 47–61 | 5% | 61% | — |
| · · · | |||||||
| 14 | Dynamo Makhachkala | 13 | 31 | 25–38 | — | <1% | 34% |
| 15 | Rodina Moscow | 9 | 24 | 18–30 | — | — | 89% |
| 16 | Fakel Voronezh | 6 | 20 | 15–26 | — | — | 97% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 144 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every Premier League match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Draws▲ +23.9%
at market prices · 100 matcheschart →
Draws in Premier League, 2026-2027: across 100 matches the market's prices paid out +23.9% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Over 2.5 goals▲ +8.5%
at market prices · 100 matcheschart →
Over 2.5 goals in Premier League, 2026-2027: across 100 matches the market's prices paid out +8.5% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.HT Over 1.5▼ −4.3%
at market prices · 100 matcheschart →
HT Over 1.5 in Premier League, 2026-2027: across 100 matches the market's prices paid out −4.3% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.HT Under 1.5▼ −9.8%
at market prices · 100 matcheschart →
HT Under 1.5 in Premier League, 2026-2027: across 100 matches the market's prices paid out −9.8% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Under 2.5 goals▼ −17.3%
at market prices · 100 matcheschart →
Under 2.5 goals in Premier League, 2026-2027: across 100 matches the market's prices paid out −17.3% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Away wins▼ −20.1%
at market prices · 100 matcheschart →
Away wins in Premier League, 2026-2027: across 100 matches the market's prices paid out −20.1% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Home wins▼ −24.1%
at market prices · 100 matcheschart →
Home wins in Premier League, 2026-2027: across 100 matches the market's prices paid out −24.1% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CSKA Moscow | 28 | 20.8 | +7.2 | |
| 2 | Zenit | 27 | 26.7 | +0.3 | |
| 3 | Dynamo Moscow | 25 | 20.8 | +4.2 | |
| 4 | Krasnodar | 24 | 23.3 | +0.7 | |
| 5 | Spartak Moscow | 23 | 22.7 | +0.3 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 14 | Akhmat Grozny | 11 | 15.5 | -4.5 | |
| 15 | Rodina Moscow | 9 | 11.5 | -2.5 | |
| 16 | Fakel Voronezh | 6 | 13.4 | -7.4 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisGo deeper
1X2 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 2.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 1.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartFirst Goal Time Trackerfull interactive chartTeam Goal Zones Heat Mapfull interactive chartPerformance vs Marketpoints vs xPTSGoals Tablescoring breakdownOdds archive · €296 seasons of open/close odds, every bookmaker
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+