Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 8 OctBiggest divergence
Fakel Voronezh – Lokomotiv Moscow+11.1%
Away win · data 51% vs market 40%
Fastest starters
Krasnodar25%
4 of their 16 goals before 15′ — highest share in the league
Late-goal kings
Akron Togliatti62%
8 of their 13 goals after 75′ — highest share in the league
The season in numbers
Market mispricing
+30.6%Draws paid out more than the market charged: +30.6% at market prices across 76 matches. 1 other market also came out ahead; the rest returned less than they cost.
Most underrated by results
-6.7 ptsFakel Voronezh produced performances worth 7 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Fast starts
32%Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 31.7' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Fakel Voronezh – Lokomotiv Moscow2026-10-10 12:15Away winModel 51.1%Implied 40.0%▲ +11.1%- Orenburg – Dynamo Makhachkala2026-10-10 10:00Under 1.5 HTModel 83.6%Implied 73.5%▲ +10.1%
- Rubin Kazan – Dynamo Moscow2026-10-11 16:30Home winModel 31.3%Implied 25.6%▲ +5.7%
- Krylya Sovetov – Spartak Moscow2026-10-10 14:30Over 1.5 HTModel 45.4%Implied 40.3%▲ +5.1%
- Krasnodar – Zenit2026-10-10 16:30Under 2.5Model 58.7%Implied 54.9%▲ +3.8%
- Akhmat Grozny – Baltika2026-10-11 11:00Away winModel 38.8%Implied 35.3%▲ +3.4%
- FK Rostov – Akron Togliatti2026-10-09 16:30Over 2.5Model 53.6%Implied 50.8%▲ +2.9%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Fakel Voronezh– Lokomotiv Moscow | 2026-10-10 | 12:15 | Away win | 51.1% | 40.0% | ▲ +11.1% | 2.50 |
| 2 |  Orenburg– Dynamo Makhachkala | 2026-10-10 | 10:00 | Under 1.5 HT | 83.6% | 73.5% | ▲ +10.1% | 1.36 |
| 3 |  Rubin Kazan– Dynamo Moscow | 2026-10-11 | 16:30 | Home win | 31.3% | 25.6% | ▲ +5.7% | 3.90 |
| 4 |  Krylya Sovetov– Spartak Moscow | 2026-10-10 | 14:30 | Over 1.5 HT | 45.4% | 40.3% | ▲ +5.1% | 2.48 |
| 5 |  Krasnodar– Zenit | 2026-10-10 | 16:30 | Under 2.5 | 58.7% | 54.9% | ▲ +3.8% | 1.82 |
| 6 |  Akhmat Grozny– Baltika | 2026-10-11 | 11:00 | Away win | 38.8% | 35.3% | ▲ +3.4% | 2.83 |
| 7 |  FK Rostov– Akron Togliatti | 2026-10-09 | 16:30 | Over 2.5 | 53.6% | 50.8% | ▲ +2.9% | 1.97 |
Add Premier League fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 8 OctWe simulate the remaining Premier League schedule 10,000 times a day. Krasnodar win the 2026-2027 title in 41% of them, projecting ~62 points; Zenit are next at 32%. At the other end, Fakel Voronezh finish in the bottom three in 93% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Krasnodar | 22 | 62 | 54–69 | 41% | 94% | — |
| 2 | Zenit | 18 | 60 | 53–67 | 32% | 93% | — |
| 3 |  CSKA Moscow | 22 | 57 | 50–64 | 13% | 78% | — |
| 4 | Spartak Moscow | 19 | 55 | 47–62 | 7% | 66% | — |
| 5 | Dynamo Moscow | 19 | 54 | 47–61 | 6% | 60% | <1% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 14 | Akron Togliatti | 9 | 31 | 24–38 | — | — | 43% |
| 15 | Rodina Moscow | 5 | 22 | 16–29 | — | — | 91% |
| 16 | Fakel Voronezh | 3 | 21 | 15–28 | — | — | 93% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 168 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every Premier League match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Draws▲ +30.6%
at market prices · 76 matcheschart →
Draws in Premier League, 2026-2027: across 76 matches the market's prices paid out +30.6% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Over 2.5 goals▲ +16.9%
at market prices · 76 matcheschart →
Over 2.5 goals in Premier League, 2026-2027: across 76 matches the market's prices paid out +16.9% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.HT Under 1.5▼ −4.8%
at market prices · 76 matcheschart →
HT Under 1.5 in Premier League, 2026-2027: across 76 matches the market's prices paid out −4.8% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.HT Over 1.5▼ −11.3%
at market prices · 76 matcheschart →
HT Over 1.5 in Premier League, 2026-2027: across 76 matches the market's prices paid out −11.3% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Under 2.5 goals▼ −22.5%
at market prices · 76 matcheschart →
Under 2.5 goals in Premier League, 2026-2027: across 76 matches the market's prices paid out −22.5% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Away wins▼ −23.0%
at market prices · 76 matcheschart →
Away wins in Premier League, 2026-2027: across 76 matches the market's prices paid out −23.0% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Home wins▼ −29.4%
at market prices · 76 matcheschart →
Home wins in Premier League, 2026-2027: across 76 matches the market's prices paid out −29.4% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CSKA Moscow | 22 | 16.3 | +5.7 | |
| 2 | Krasnodar | 22 | 18.5 | +3.5 | |
| 3 | Spartak Moscow | 19 | 16.9 | +2.1 | |
| 4 | Dynamo Moscow | 19 | 15.4 | +3.6 | |
| 5 | Zenit | 18 | 20.4 | -2.4 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 14 | Lokomotiv Moscow | 7 | 12.3 | -5.3 | |
| 15 | Rodina Moscow | 5 | 8.5 | -3.5 | |
| 16 | Fakel Voronezh | 3 | 9.7 | -6.7 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisGo deeper
1X2 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 2.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 1.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartFirst Goal Time Trackerfull interactive chartTeam Goal Zones Heat Mapfull interactive chartPerformance vs Marketpoints vs xPTSGoals Tablescoring breakdownOdds archive · €296 seasons of open/close odds, every bookmaker
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+