Biggest divergence
Baltika – Zenit+14.9%
Under 2.5 · data 70% vs market 55%
Fastest starters
Akhmat Grozny30%
3 of their 10 goals before 15′ — highest share in the league
Late-goal kings
Akron Togliatti60%
6 of their 10 goals after 75′ — highest share in the league
The season in numbers
The outlier
+16.3uBlindly backing draws in every match beat the market this season. The other 6 strategies lost — as they usually do.
Most underrated by results
-6.1 ptsFakel Voronezh produced performances worth 6 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Fast starts
37%Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 30.2' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Baltika – Zenit2026-09-16 17:45Under 2.5 ✓70.1%vs 55.2%▲ +14.9%- Lokomotiv Moscow – Krylya Sovetov2026-09-16 17:45Over 2.5 ✓63.3%vs 51.5%▲ +11.8%
- Krasnodar – Akron Togliatti2026-09-13 16:30Over 1.5 HT ✓53.8%vs 44.6%▲ +9.1%
- Akron Togliatti – Akhmat Grozny2026-09-17 15:30Over 1.5 HT ✓44.4%vs 37.0%▲ +7.3%
- Fakel Voronezh – Baltika2026-09-12 11:00Away win ✓48.7%vs 41.5%▲ +7.2%
- Zenit – Lokomotiv Moscow2026-09-12 13:15Under 2.5 ✓49.6%vs 43.5%▲ +6.1%
- Dynamo Makhachkala – CSKA Moscow2026-09-17 17:45Under 2.5 ✓64.7%vs 59.2%▲ +5.5%
- Spartak Moscow – Fakel Voronezh2026-09-16 15:30Under 2.5 ✓56.6%vs 51.5%▲ +5.0%
- Orenburg – Krasnodar2026-09-17 13:15Under 1.5 HT ✓74.7%vs 69.9%▲ +4.8%
- CSKA Moscow – Rubin Kazan2026-09-12 17:45Under 2.5 ✓58.5%vs 54.3%▲ +4.2%
- Akhmat Grozny – Dynamo Makhachkala2026-09-13 11:30Under 2.5 ✓65.0%vs 61.0%▲ +4.0%
- FK Rostov – Dynamo Moscow2026-09-17 15:30Over 2.5 ✓51.9%vs 48.8%▲ +3.1%
- Dynamo Moscow – Orenburg2026-09-12 15:30Under 1.5 HT ✓68.5%vs 65.4%▲ +3.1%
- Spartak Moscow – FK Rostov2026-09-13 14:00Over 1.5 HT37.4%vs 36.5%▲ +0.9%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | + | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Baltika– Zenit | 2026-09-16 | 17:45 | Under 2.5 ✓ | 70.1% | 55.2% | ▲ +14.9% | 1.81 | |
| 2 |  Lokomotiv Moscow– Krylya Sovetov | 2026-09-16 | 17:45 | Over 2.5 ✓ | 63.3% | 51.5% | ▲ +11.8% | 1.94 | |
| 3 |  Krasnodar– Akron Togliatti | 2026-09-13 | 16:30 | Over 1.5 HT ✓ | 53.8% | 44.6% | ▲ +9.1% | 2.24 | |
| 4 | Akron Togliatti– Akhmat Grozny | 2026-09-17 | 15:30 | Over 1.5 HT ✓ | 44.4% | 37.0% | ▲ +7.3% | 2.70 | |
| 5 |  Fakel Voronezh–Baltika | 2026-09-12 | 11:00 | Away win ✓ | 48.7% | 41.5% | ▲ +7.2% | 2.41 | |
| 6 | Zenit–Lokomotiv Moscow | 2026-09-12 | 13:15 | Under 2.5 ✓ | 49.6% | 43.5% | ▲ +6.1% | 2.30 | |
| 7 |  Dynamo Makhachkala– CSKA Moscow | 2026-09-17 | 17:45 | Under 2.5 ✓ | 64.7% | 59.2% | ▲ +5.5% | 1.69 | |
| 8 |  Spartak Moscow–Fakel Voronezh | 2026-09-16 | 15:30 | Under 2.5 ✓ | 56.6% | 51.5% | ▲ +5.0% | 1.94 | |
| 9 |  Orenburg–Krasnodar | 2026-09-17 | 13:15 | Under 1.5 HT ✓ | 74.7% | 69.9% | ▲ +4.8% | 1.43 | |
| 10 | CSKA Moscow– Rubin Kazan | 2026-09-12 | 17:45 | Under 2.5 ✓ | 58.5% | 54.3% | ▲ +4.2% | 1.84 | |
| 11 | Akhmat Grozny–Dynamo Makhachkala | 2026-09-13 | 11:30 | Under 2.5 ✓ | 65.0% | 61.0% | ▲ +4.0% | 1.64 | |
| 12 |  FK Rostov– Dynamo Moscow | 2026-09-17 | 15:30 | Over 2.5 ✓ | 51.9% | 48.8% | ▲ +3.1% | 2.05 | |
| 13 | Dynamo Moscow–Orenburg | 2026-09-12 | 15:30 | Under 1.5 HT ✓ | 68.5% | 65.4% | ▲ +3.1% | 1.53 | |
| 14 | Spartak Moscow–FK Rostov | 2026-09-13 | 14:00 | Over 1.5 HT | 37.4% | 36.5% | ▲ +0.9% | 2.74 |
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 10 AugWe simulate the remaining Premier League schedule 10,000 times a day. Zenit win the 2026-2027 title in 53% of them, projecting ~59 points; Krasnodar are next at 40%. At the other end, Rodina Moscow finish in the bottom three in >99% of simulations. Biggest move after the latest results: Krasnodar's title chance up 13 points in a day.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zenit | 6 | 59 | 51–67 | ▼53% | 98% | — |
| 2 | Krasnodar | 9 | 58 | 50–66 | ▲40% | 97% | — |
| 3 | Spartak Moscow | 6 | 49 | 41–57 | ▼4% | 68% | <1% |
| 4 | Baltika | 6 | 45 | 37–53 | 1% | 40% | <1% |
| 5 | CSKA Moscow | 5 | 45 | 37–53 | 1% | 41% | <1% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 14 | Akron Togliatti | 1 | 25 | 18–33 | — | <1% | 53% |
| 15 | Fakel Voronezh | 0 | 23 | 16–30 | — | <1% | 66% |
| 16 | Rodina Moscow | 3 | 3 | 3–3 | — | — | >99% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 190 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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<iframe src="https://www.football-charts.com/embed/russia/premier-league/projection" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" title="Premier League live table — Football Charts" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/russia/premier-league">Premier League stats by Football Charts</a></p>
Market strategies
flat stake · vs break-even — not betting adviceWhat blindly backing each market in every Premier League match would have returned. Losing lines are the norm — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Draws▲ +16.3u
60 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing draws in every Premier League match in 2026-2027: +16.3 units over 60 flat-stake bets.Over 2.5 goals▲ +12.6u
60 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing over 2.5 goals in every Premier League match in 2026-2027: +12.6 units over 60 flat-stake bets.HT Over 1.5▲ +1.5u
60 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing ht over 1.5 in every Premier League match in 2026-2027: +1.5 units over 60 flat-stake bets.HT Under 1.5▼ -7.6u
60 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing ht under 1.5 in every Premier League match in 2026-2027: -7.6 units over 60 flat-stake bets.Away wins▼ -7.6u
60 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing away wins in every Premier League match in 2026-2027: -7.6 units over 60 flat-stake bets.Under 2.5 goals▼ -17.4u
60 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing under 2.5 goals in every Premier League match in 2026-2027: -17.4 units over 60 flat-stake bets.Home wins▼ -19.1u
60 bets · flat stakechart →
Backing home wins in every Premier League match in 2026-2027: -19.1 units over 60 flat-stake bets.Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Krasnodar | 20 | 14.3 | +5.7 | |
| 2 | CSKA Moscow | 18 | 12.8 | +5.2 | |
| 3 | Spartak Moscow | 13 | 12.5 | +0.5 | |
| 4 | Dynamo Moscow | 13 | 11.6 | +1.4 | |
| 5 | Zenit | 12 | 16.4 | -4.4 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 14 | Akron Togliatti | 5 | 7.5 | -2.5 | |
| 15 | Rodina Moscow | 4 | 6.3 | -2.3 | |
| 16 | Fakel Voronezh | 2 | 8.1 | -6.1 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisGo deeper
1X2 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 2.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 1.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartFirst Goal Time Trackerfull interactive chartTeam Goal Zones Heat Mapfull interactive chartPerformance vs Marketpoints vs xPTSGoals Tablescoring breakdownOdds archive · €296 seasons of open/close odds, every bookmaker
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+