Premier League title race 2026/27: who will win the league?
Russia · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 25 Oct 2026
Most likely to win the league: Zenit (56%), Krasnodar (17%), CSKA Moscow (10%). 65 points were enough in 90% of 10,000 simulations.
enough to win the league in half the simulated seasons
enough to win the league in nine seasons out of ten
Champions chances, club by club
| Club | P | Pts | Proj. pts | Champions | Needs (90% line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zenit | 12 | 24 | 6356–69 | 56% | 41 from 19 (2.16/game) |
| Krasnodar | 13 | 24 | 5852–65 | 17% | 41 from 18 (2.28/game) |
| CSKA Moscow | 12 | 25 | 5649–63 | 10% | 40 from 19 (2.11/game) |
| Spartak Moscow | 11 | 23 | 5649–63 | 9% | 42 from 19 (2.21/game) |
| Dynamo Moscow | 12 | 25 | 5649–62 | 7% | 40 from 18 (2.22/game) |
Below 1%: Baltika, Lokomotiv Moscow, FK Rostov, Orenburg, Krylya Sovetov, Rubin Kazan, Akhmat Grozny, Akron Togliatti, Dynamo Makhachkala, Rodina Moscow, Fakel Voronezh.
What does each club need?
Pick a club and test how many points from its remaining games are needed to win the league.
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How these chances are made
A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 147 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes first. The points line is what the club finishing 2nd ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.
The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).