Spartak Moscow vs FK Rostov
Premier League, Russia · 2026-09-13 · 16:00 CET
LWWDW
WLLWDThe score model made a Spartak Moscow win the most likely outcome at 56%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 3:0 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Spartak Moscow 1.75 – 0.90 FK Rostov.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spartak Moscow win | 56.4% | 56.6% | -0.1% | ✓ |
| Draw | 25.5% | 24.5% | +1.0% | ✗ |
| FK Rostov win | 18.1% | 18.9% | -0.8% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 49.3% | 49.9% | -0.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27.4% | 28.3% | -0.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 50.0% | 50.1% | -0.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.6% | 32.8% | +4.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Spartak Moscow 40.3 / FK Rostov 41.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Spartak Moscow vs FK Rostov in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.