Krasnodar vs Akron Togliatti
Premier League, Russia · 2026-09-13 · 18:30 CET
DDDLD
DDWLDThe score model made a Krasnodar win the most likely outcome at 80%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 71%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Krasnodar 2.90 – 0.79 Akron Togliatti.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Krasnodar win | 79.8% | 70.9% | +8.9% | ✗ |
| Draw | 13.5% | 17.7% | -4.2% | ✓ |
| Akron Togliatti win | 6.7% | 11.5% | -4.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 88.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 71.3% | 61.1% | +10.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 50.3% | 39.7% | +10.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 52.0% | 51.9% | +0.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 84.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 54.0% | 40.5% | +13.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Krasnodar 41.3 / Akron Togliatti 36.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Krasnodar vs Akron Togliatti in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.