Fakel Voronezh vs Baltika
Premier League, Russia · 2026-09-12 · 13:00 CET
LDLLW
WLDLDThe score model made a Baltika win the most likely outcome at 49%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 25%). It finished 2:2 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Fakel Voronezh 0.57 – 1.15 Baltika.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fakel Voronezh win | 17.4% | 26.9% | -9.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 33.9% | 33.0% | +0.9% | ✓ |
| Baltika win | 48.7% | 40.1% | +8.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 52.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 24.8% | 33.3% | -8.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 9.6% | 16.3% | -6.7% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 30.9% | 41.6% | -10.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 48.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 13.8% | 23.5% | -9.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Fakel Voronezh 23.1 / Baltika 29.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Fakel Voronezh vs Baltika in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.