CSKA Moscow vs Rubin Kazan
Premier League, Russia · 2026-09-12 · 19:45 CET
WWDWW
WDDDLThe score model made a CSKA Moscow win the most likely outcome at 52%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 41%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: CSKA Moscow 1.51 – 0.83 Rubin Kazan.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSKA Moscow win | 52.0% | 56.8% | -4.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.3% | 24.0% | +4.3% | ✓ |
| Rubin Kazan win | 19.7% | 19.2% | +0.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 41.5% | 53.6% | -12.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.9% | 32.6% | -11.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 45.1% | 53.4% | -8.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.0% | 35.8% | -6.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: CSKA Moscow 41.3 / Rubin Kazan 38.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open CSKA Moscow vs Rubin Kazan in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.