Rubin Kazan vs Akhmat Grozny
Premier League, Russia · 2026-09-07 · 18:30 CET
WDDDL
DDWLDThe score model made a Rubin Kazan win the most likely outcome at 45%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 40%). It finished 1:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Rubin Kazan 1.34 – 0.95 Akhmat Grozny.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rubin Kazan win | 44.8% | 33.7% | +11.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 30.0% | 31.4% | -1.4% | ✓ |
| Akhmat Grozny win | 25.3% | 34.9% | -9.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 67.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.1% | 39.9% | +0.2% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 19.8% | 21.6% | -1.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 46.3% | 47.6% | -1.3% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.2% | 27.4% | +5.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Rubin Kazan 38 / Akhmat Grozny 39.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.