Orenburg vs Akron Togliatti
Premier League, Russia · 2026-09-06 · 13:00 CET
DDLDW
DDDWLThe score model made an Orenburg win the most likely outcome at 46%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 2:2 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Orenburg 1.61 – 1.18 Akron Togliatti.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orenburg win | 46.3% | 53.6% | -7.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.9% | 25.3% | +1.7% | ✓ |
| Akron Togliatti win | 26.8% | 21.1% | +5.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.9% | 53.1% | -0.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.7% | 32.5% | -1.9% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 56.6% | 54.5% | +2.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.0% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.7% | 35.9% | -5.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Orenburg 39.9 / Akron Togliatti 35 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.