Krylya Sovetov vs Krasnodar
Premier League, Russia · 2026-09-05 · 13:00 CET
DDWDD
DDDDLThe score model made a Krasnodar win the most likely outcome at 61%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 58%). It finished 2:2 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Krylya Sovetov 0.96 – 2.04 Krasnodar.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Krylya Sovetov win | 16.1% | 20.6% | -4.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 22.6% | 23.9% | -1.4% | ✓ |
| Krasnodar win | 61.4% | 55.5% | +5.9% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57.9% | 54.0% | +3.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.5% | 32.6% | +2.9% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 54.8% | 54.3% | +0.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 75.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 39.6% | 35.9% | +3.7% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Krylya Sovetov 40 / Krasnodar 40 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.