FK Rostov vs Fakel Voronezh
Premier League, Russia · 2026-09-05 · 18:00 CET
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LLDLLThe score model made an FK Rostov win the most likely outcome at 48%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 26%). It finished 3:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: FK Rostov 1.15 – 0.60 Fakel Voronezh.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FK Rostov win | 48.2% | 50.0% | -1.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 33.9% | 29.0% | +4.9% | ✗ |
| Fakel Voronezh win | 17.9% | 21.0% | -3.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 53.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 25.6% | 36.8% | -11.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 10.1% | 18.9% | -8.8% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 31.9% | 42.0% | -10.1% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 55.5% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 18.9% | 25.7% | -6.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: FK Rostov 39.9 / Fakel Voronezh 21.5 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.