Torreense vs Leixoes
Liga Portugal 2, Portugal · 2026-09-11 · 19:45 CET
DLWDL
LWWDLThe score model made a Torreense win the most likely outcome at 49%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 51%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Torreense 1.59 – 1.11 Leixoes.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torreense win | 49.0% | 42.4% | +6.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 23.8% | 29.9% | -6.0% | ✓ |
| Leixoes win | 27.2% | 27.7% | -0.5% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74.7% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.8% | 42.0% | +8.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.8% | 22.3% | +6.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 53.0% | 48.4% | +4.6% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 70.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 32.3% | 29.7% | +2.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Torreense 46.3 / Leixoes 44.7 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Torreense vs Leixoes in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.