The season in numbers
Blindly backing home wins in every match beat the market this season. The other 6 strategies lost — as they usually do.
Feirense produced performances worth 6 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 32.5' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
FC Porto B – Vizela2026-09-14 17:00Home win ✓30.6%vs 28.3%▲ +2.3%- Chaves – Feirense2026-09-13 13:00BTTS: No56.6%vs 54.9%▲ +1.6%
- Sporting CP B – Lusitania FC2026-09-14 17:00Away win29.3%vs 28.1%▲ +1.2%
- Felgueiras – Penafiel2026-09-12 13:00Away win33.3%vs 32.2%▲ +1.2%
- Portimonense – Tondela2026-09-12 10:00Away win44.6%vs 43.7%▲ +0.9%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | + | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto B– Vizela | 2026-09-14 | 17:00 | Home win ✓ | 30.6% | 28.3% | ▲ +2.3% | 3.53 | |
| 2 |  Chaves– Feirense | 2026-09-13 | 13:00 | BTTS: No | 56.6% | 54.9% | ▲ +1.6% | 1.82 | |
| 3 |  Sporting CP B– Lusitania FC | 2026-09-14 | 17:00 | Away win | 29.3% | 28.1% | ▲ +1.2% | 3.56 | |
| 4 |  Felgueiras– Penafiel | 2026-09-12 | 13:00 | Away win | 33.3% | 32.2% | ▲ +1.2% | 3.11 | |
| 5 |  Portimonense– Tondela | 2026-09-12 | 10:00 | Away win | 44.6% | 43.7% | ▲ +0.9% | 2.29 |
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 10 AugWe simulate the remaining Liga Portugal 2 schedule 10,000 times a day. Academica win the 2026-2027 title in 77% of them, projecting ~64 points; Tondela are next at 8%. At the other end, AFS finish in the bottom three in >99% of simulations. Biggest move after the latest results: Sporting CP B's title chance up 2 points in a day.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Academica | 3 | 64 | 55–73 | 77% | 98% | — |
| 2 | Tondela | 3 | 52 | 43–61 | ▼8% | 60% | <1% |
| 3 | Sporting CP B | 3 | 49 | 39–58 | ▲4% | 40% | 2% |
| 4 | Vizela | 3 | 48 | 38–57 | ▲3% | 36% | 2% |
| 5 |  Torreense | 0 | 46 | 37–55 | ▼2% | 29% | 4% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 16 | Penafiel | 0 | 38 | 29–47 | <1% | 5% | 25% |
| 17 | Lusitania FC | 0 | 38 | 29–47 | <1% | 4% | 28% |
| 18 | AFS | 0 | 0 | 0–0 | — | — | >99% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 266 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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<iframe src="https://www.football-charts.com/embed/portugal/liga-portugal-2/projection" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" title="Liga Portugal 2 live table — Football Charts" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/portugal/liga-portugal-2">Liga Portugal 2 stats by Football Charts</a></p>
Market strategies
flat stake · vs break-even — not betting adviceWhat blindly backing each market in every Liga Portugal 2 match would have returned. Losing lines are the norm — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lusitania FC | 13 | 7.0 | +6.0 | |
| 2 | Sporting CP B | 12 | 6.5 | +5.5 | |
| 3 | Penafiel | 10 | 6.9 | +3.1 | |
| 4 | Vizela | 10 | 7.2 | +2.8 | |
| 5 |  Leiria | 9 | 7.3 | +1.7 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 16 | FC Porto B | 3 | 5.6 | -2.6 | |
| 17 | Chaves | 1 | 5.8 | -4.8 | |
| 18 | Feirense | 1 | 6.7 | -5.7 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysis
Go deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+