Liga Portugal 2 title race 2026/27: who will win the league?
Portugal · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 18 Oct 2026
Most likely to win the league: Sporting CP B (20%), Lusitania FC (14%), Tondela (14%). 64 points were enough in 90% of 10,000 simulations.
enough to win the league in half the simulated seasons
enough to win the league in nine seasons out of ten
Champions chances, club by club
| Club | P | Pts | Proj. pts | Champions | Needs (90% line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting CP B | 7 | 15 | 5647–65 | 20% | 49 from 27 (1.81/game) |
| Lusitania FC | 7 | 17 | 5446–63 | 14% | 47 from 27 (1.74/game) |
| Tondela | 7 | 12 | 5445–63 | 14% | 52 from 27 (1.93/game) |
| SC Farense | 7 | 14 | 5445–63 | 14% | 50 from 27 (1.85/game) |
| Benfica B | 7 | 13 | 5243–60 | 7% | 51 from 27 (1.89/game) |
| Penafiel | 7 | 13 | 5142–60 | 7% | 51 from 27 (1.89/game) |
| AFS | 7 | 9 | 5142–59 | 6% | 55 from 27 (2.04/game) |
| Leiria | 7 | 10 | 5041–59 | 5% | 54 from 27 (2.00/game) |
| Academica | 7 | 12 | 5041–58 | 5% | 52 from 27 (1.93/game) |
| Vizela | 7 | 11 | 5041–58 | 4% | 53 from 27 (1.96/game) |
| Torreense | 7 | 6 | 4738–56 | 2% | 58 from 27 (2.15/game) |
Below 1%: Leixoes, Felgueiras, Portimonense, FC Porto B, Chaves, Amarante, Feirense.
What does each club need?
Pick a club and test how many points from its remaining games are needed to win the league.
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How these chances are made
A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 243 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes first. The points line is what the club finishing 2nd ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.
The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).