Penafiel vs Feirense
Liga Portugal 2, Portugal · 2026-11-02 · 19:00 CET
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LLLLDThe score model makes a Penafiel win the most likely outcome at 48%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 38%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 81.6% vs 74.6% implied (+7.0 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Penafiel 1.34 – 0.88 Feirense.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Penafiel win | 47.8% | 48.0% | -0.2% |
| Draw | 27.0% | 27.7% | -0.7% |
| Feirense win | 25.2% | 24.3% | +0.9% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 64.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 38.2% | 45.0% | -6.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 18.4% | 25.4% | -7.0% |
| Both teams to score | 42.7% | 49.0% | -6.4% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.9% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.3% | 31.0% | -4.7% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Penafiel 43.5 / Feirense 43.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Penafiel vs Feirense in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.