Sporting CP B vs Lusitania FC
Liga Portugal 2, Portugal · 2026-09-14 · 19:00 CET
LWWLW
DWWWDThe score model made a Sporting CP B win the most likely outcome at 45%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 46%). It finished 1:2 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Sporting CP B 1.42 – 1.09 Lusitania FC.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting CP B win | 45.1% | 42.5% | +2.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.6% | 29.7% | -4.2% | ✗ |
| Lusitania FC win | 29.3% | 27.7% | +1.6% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45.7% | 44.6% | +1.1% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24.3% | 24.9% | -0.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 49.7% | 50.5% | -0.9% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.3% | 31.0% | -0.7% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Sporting CP B 26.1 / Lusitania FC 26.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Sporting CP B vs Lusitania FC in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.