Portimonense vs Tondela
Liga Portugal 2, Portugal · 2026-09-12 · 12:00 CET
DLLLW
LLWWWThe score model made a Tondela win the most likely outcome at 44%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 45%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Portimonense 1.08 – 1.39 Tondela.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Portimonense win | 29.8% | 31.0% | -1.2% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.8% | 29.0% | -3.2% | ✗ |
| Tondela win | 44.4% | 40.0% | +4.4% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.8% | 43.7% | +1.0% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.5% | 24.0% | -0.4% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 49.0% | 50.1% | -1.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 63.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 25.1% | 30.7% | -5.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Portimonense 37 / Tondela 23.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Portimonense vs Tondela in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.