FC Porto B vs Vizela
Liga Portugal 2, Portugal · 2026-09-14 · 19:00 CET
WLLDW
DWWDLThe score model made a Vizela win the most likely outcome at 43%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 41%). It finished 2:2 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: FC Porto B 1.03 – 1.29 Vizela.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FC Porto B win | 30.3% | 24.9% | +5.4% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.9% | 28.0% | -1.1% | ✓ |
| Vizela win | 42.8% | 47.1% | -4.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 66.9% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40.9% | 45.5% | -4.6% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20.5% | 25.8% | -5.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 46.1% | 50.1% | -4.0% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 64.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.3% | 31.0% | -4.7% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: FC Porto B 44.5 / Vizela 36.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open FC Porto B vs Vizela in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.