SC Farense vs Chaves
Liga Portugal 2, Portugal · 2026-10-04 · 12:00 CET
DLDWW
DLWLDThe score model made an SC Farense win the most likely outcome at 40%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 34%). It finished 4:0 (HT 2:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: SC Farense 1.11 – 0.95 Chaves.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SC Farense win | 39.6% | 42.8% | -3.2% | ✓ |
| Draw | 29.1% | 28.0% | +1.1% | ✗ |
| Chaves win | 31.2% | 29.2% | +2.1% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 60.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 33.9% | 48.7% | -14.8% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15.3% | 28.6% | -13.3% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 40.5% | 53.6% | -13.1% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 56.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 19.6% | 33.5% | -13.9% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: SC Farense 28.9 / Chaves 35.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.