Feirense vs Sporting CP B
Liga Portugal 2, Portugal · 2026-09-05 · 16:30 CET
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LWWLWThe score model made a Sporting CP B win the most likely outcome at 38%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 29%). It finished 1:3 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Feirense 0.87 – 1.01 Sporting CP B.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feirense win | 30.6% | 34.1% | -3.5% | ✗ |
| Draw | 30.9% | 30.2% | +0.7% | ✗ |
| Sporting CP B win | 38.5% | 35.7% | +2.8% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 55.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 29.1% | 40.4% | -11.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 12.2% | 21.3% | -9.1% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 36.5% | 47.7% | -11.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 61.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.9% | 28.1% | -4.2% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Feirense 44.3 / Sporting CP B 25.6 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.