Benfica B vs Torreense
Liga Portugal 2, Portugal · 2026-09-05 · 16:30 CET
WDLLW
DLWDLThe score model made a Benfica B win the most likely outcome at 39%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 49%). It finished 0:2 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Benfica B 1.35 – 1.27 Torreense.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benfica B win | 39.1% | 34.3% | +4.8% | ✗ |
| Draw | 25.4% | 29.2% | -3.8% | ✗ |
| Torreense win | 35.5% | 36.5% | -1.0% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48.5% | 49.5% | -0.9% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26.7% | 28.9% | -2.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 52.7% | 55.3% | -2.6% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 68.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 30.6% | 34.1% | -3.5% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Benfica B 44.3 / Torreense 45.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.