Wisla Plock vs Cracovia
Ekstraklasa, Poland · 2026-09-13 · 12:15 CET
LDWWL
LLLWDThe score model made a Cracovia win the most likely outcome at 33%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 34%). It finished 3:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Wisla Plock 1.03 – 1.04 Cracovia.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wisla Plock win | 33.2% | 36.1% | -2.9% | ✓ |
| Draw | 33.4% | 28.1% | +5.2% | ✗ |
| Cracovia win | 33.4% | 35.7% | -2.3% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 62.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 34.2% | 49.3% | -15.2% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 15.5% | 29.0% | -13.5% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 43.1% | 54.7% | -11.6% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 57.2% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 21.0% | 33.6% | -12.6% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Wisla Plock 28.7 / Cracovia 45.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Wisla Plock vs Cracovia in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.