Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 26 OctThe season in numbers
Every market returned less than it cost this season. The closest, home wins, returned −0.5% at market prices across 106 matches — the bookmaker margin at work.
Rakow produced performances worth 11 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 34.5' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Wisla Plock – Piast Gliwice2026-10-31 17:00Under 2.5Model 65.4%Implied 47.4%▲ +18.0%- GKS Katowice – Widzew Lodz2026-10-31 17:00Under 2.5Model 50.7%Implied 43.5%▲ +7.2%
- Gornik Zabrze – Legia2026-10-31 17:00Under 2.5Model 58.1%Implied 54.1%▲ +4.1%
- Lech Poznan – Wisla2026-10-31 17:00Over 1.5 HTModel 48.4%Implied 45.9%▲ +2.5%
- Cracovia – Motor Lublin2026-10-31 17:00Under 1.5 HTModel 66.2%Implied 65.8%▲ +0.4%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Wisla Plock– Piast Gliwice | 2026-10-31 | 17:00 | Under 2.5 | 65.4% | 47.4% | ▲ +18.0% | 2.11 |
| 2 |  GKS Katowice– Widzew Lodz | 2026-10-31 | 17:00 | Under 2.5 | 50.7% | 43.5% | ▲ +7.2% | 2.30 |
| 3 |  Gornik Zabrze– Legia | 2026-10-31 | 17:00 | Under 2.5 | 58.1% | 54.1% | ▲ +4.1% | 1.85 |
| 4 |  Lech Poznan– Wisla | 2026-10-31 | 17:00 | Over 1.5 HT | 48.4% | 45.9% | ▲ +2.5% | 2.18 |
| 5 |  Cracovia– Motor Lublin | 2026-10-31 | 17:00 | Under 1.5 HT | 66.2% | 65.8% | ▲ +0.4% | 1.52 |
Add Ekstraklasa fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 26 OctWe simulate the remaining Ekstraklasa schedule 10,000 times a day. Lech Poznan win the 2026-2027 title in 75% of them, projecting ~71 points; Gornik Zabrze are next at 12%. At the other end, Radomiak Radom finish in the bottom three in 72% of simulations. Biggest move after the latest results: Lech Poznan's title chance up 11 points in a day.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lech Poznan | 28 | 71 | 63–78 | ▲75% | 99% | — |
| 2 | Gornik Zabrze | 27 | 62 | 55–70 | ▼12% | 83% | — |
| 3 | Legia | 23 | 59 | 51–66 | ▼5% | 67% | <1% |
| 4 |  Pogon Szczecin | 24 | 58 | 50–66 | ▼5% | 62% | — |
| 5 | Wisla | 21 | 55 | 47–62 | 1% | 36% | <1% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 16 | Slask Wroclaw | 9 | 35 | 28–43 | — | <1% | 43% |
| 17 | Wieczysta Krakow | 8 | 34 | 26–41 | — | <1% | 55% |
| 18 |  Radomiak Radom | 8 | 31 | 24–39 | — | — | 72% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 200 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every Ekstraklasa match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lech Poznan | 28 | 20.1 | +7.9 | |
| 2 | Gornik Zabrze | 27 | 18.4 | +8.6 | outperformed expectations |
| 3 | Pogon Szczecin | 24 | 16.1 | +7.9 | |
| 4 | Legia | 23 | 19.8 | +3.2 | |
| 5 | Wisla | 21 | 17.7 | +3.3 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 16 | Wieczysta Krakow | 8 | 15.8 | -7.8 | |
| 17 | Radomiak Radom | 8 | 13.1 | -5.1 | |
| 18 |  Rakow | 6 | 16.8 | -10.8 | underperformed expectations |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysis
Go deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+