Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 8 OctBiggest divergence
Piast Gliwice – Widzew Lodz+8.7%
Under 2.5 · data 57% vs market 48%
Fastest starters
Widzew Lodz23%
3 of their 13 goals before 15′ — highest share in the league
Late-goal kings
Wieczysta Krakow64%
7 of their 11 goals after 75′ — highest share in the league
The season in numbers
Market mispricing
+0.8%Over 2.5 goals paid out more than the market charged: +0.8% at market prices across 78 matches. The other 6 markets returned less than they cost — the bookmaker margin at work.
Most underrated by results
-10.2 ptsRakow produced performances worth 10 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Fast starts
35%Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 33.9' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Piast Gliwice – Widzew Lodz2026-10-11 12:45Under 2.5Model 57.0%Implied 48.3%▲ +8.7%- Pogon Szczecin – Korona Kielce2026-10-11 15:30Under 2.5Model 56.1%Implied 49.3%▲ +6.9%
- Cracovia – Zaglebie2026-10-10 12:45Under 1.5 HTModel 77.3%Implied 70.9%▲ +6.3%
- Slask Wroclaw – Lech Poznan2026-10-10 15:30FT U3.5Model 67.4%Implied 61.7%▲ +5.6%
- Rakow – GKS Katowice2026-10-09 18:30FT U3.5Model 65.8%Implied 62.9%▲ +2.9%
- Jagiellonia – Gornik Zabrze2026-10-10 18:15Home winModel 42.9%Implied 40.7%▲ +2.3%
- Radomiak Radom – Motor Lublin2026-10-12 16:00Home winModel 43.5%Implied 41.5%▲ +2.0%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Piast Gliwice– Widzew Lodz | 2026-10-11 | 12:45 | Under 2.5 | 57.0% | 48.3% | ▲ +8.7% | 2.07 |
| 2 |  Pogon Szczecin– Korona Kielce | 2026-10-11 | 15:30 | Under 2.5 | 56.1% | 49.3% | ▲ +6.9% | 2.03 |
| 3 |  Cracovia– Zaglebie | 2026-10-10 | 12:45 | Under 1.5 HT | 77.3% | 70.9% | ▲ +6.3% | 1.41 |
| 4 |  Slask Wroclaw– Lech Poznan | 2026-10-10 | 15:30 | FT U3.5 | 67.4% | 61.7% | ▲ +5.6% | 1.62 |
| 5 |  Rakow– GKS Katowice | 2026-10-09 | 18:30 | FT U3.5 | 65.8% | 62.9% | ▲ +2.9% | 1.59 |
| 6 |  Jagiellonia– Gornik Zabrze | 2026-10-10 | 18:15 | Home win | 42.9% | 40.7% | ▲ +2.3% | 2.46 |
| 7 |  Radomiak Radom– Motor Lublin | 2026-10-12 | 16:00 | Home win | 43.5% | 41.5% | ▲ +2.0% | 2.41 |
Add Ekstraklasa fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 8 OctWe simulate the remaining Ekstraklasa schedule 10,000 times a day. Lech Poznan win the 2026-2027 title in 47% of them, projecting ~65 points; Gornik Zabrze are next at 21%. At the other end, Radomiak Radom finish in the bottom three in 54% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lech Poznan | 19 | 65 | 56–73 | 47% | 90% | — |
| 2 | Gornik Zabrze | 22 | 61 | 53–69 | 21% | 79% | — |
| 3 |  Legia | 19 | 59 | 51–67 | 16% | 70% | — |
| 4 | Wisla | 17 | 56 | 48–65 | 8% | 53% | <1% |
| 5 | Pogon Szczecin | 15 | 54 | 45–62 | 3% | 35% | <1% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 16 | Motor Lublin | 6 | 35 | 27–43 | — | <1% | 51% |
| 17 | Radomiak Radom | 8 | 35 | 27–43 | — | <1% | 54% |
| 18 | Wieczysta Krakow | 5 | 35 | 27–43 | — | <1% | 53% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 228 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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<iframe src="https://www.football-charts.com/embed/poland/ekstraklasa/projection" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" title="Ekstraklasa live table — Football Charts" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/poland/ekstraklasa">Ekstraklasa stats by Football Charts</a></p>
Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every Ekstraklasa match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Over 2.5 goals▲ +0.8%
at market prices · 78 matcheschart →
Over 2.5 goals in Ekstraklasa, 2026-2027: across 78 matches the market's prices paid out +0.8% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.HT Under 1.5▼ −5.8%
at market prices · 78 matcheschart →
HT Under 1.5 in Ekstraklasa, 2026-2027: across 78 matches the market's prices paid out −5.8% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Home wins▼ −7.9%
at market prices · 78 matcheschart →
Home wins in Ekstraklasa, 2026-2027: across 78 matches the market's prices paid out −7.9% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Away wins▼ −13.2%
at market prices · 78 matcheschart →
Away wins in Ekstraklasa, 2026-2027: across 78 matches the market's prices paid out −13.2% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Draws▼ −15.7%
at market prices · 78 matcheschart →
Draws in Ekstraklasa, 2026-2027: across 78 matches the market's prices paid out −15.7% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.HT Over 1.5▼ −16.2%
at market prices · 78 matcheschart →
HT Over 1.5 in Ekstraklasa, 2026-2027: across 78 matches the market's prices paid out −16.2% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Under 2.5 goals▼ −22.6%
at market prices · 78 matcheschart →
Under 2.5 goals in Ekstraklasa, 2026-2027: across 78 matches the market's prices paid out −22.6% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gornik Zabrze | 22 | 13.6 | +8.4 | outperformed expectations |
| 2 | Legia | 19 | 15.4 | +3.6 | |
| 3 | Lech Poznan | 19 | 14.9 | +4.1 | |
| 4 | Wisla | 17 | 13.5 | +3.5 | |
| 5 | Pogon Szczecin | 15 | 11.5 | +3.5 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 16 | Motor Lublin | 6 | 10.5 | -4.5 | |
| 17 | Wieczysta Krakow | 5 | 9.8 | -4.8 | |
| 18 | Rakow | 3 | 13.2 | -10.2 | underperformed expectations |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysis
Go deeper
1X2 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 2.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 1.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartFirst Goal Time Trackerfull interactive chartTeam Goal Zones Heat Mapfull interactive chartPerformance vs Marketpoints vs xPTSGoals Tablescoring breakdownOdds archive · €296 seasons of open/close odds, every bookmaker
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+