Ekstraklasa title race 2026/27: who will win the league?
Poland · Rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 23 Oct 2026
Most likely to win the league: Lech Poznan (64%), Gornik Zabrze (17%), Legia (11%). 70 points were enough in 90% of 10,000 simulations.
enough to win the league in half the simulated seasons
enough to win the league in nine seasons out of ten
Champions chances, club by club
| Club | P | Pts | Proj. pts | Champions | Needs (90% line) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lech Poznan | 10 | 25 | 6961–76 | 64% | 45 from 24 (1.88/game) |
| Gornik Zabrze | 11 | 26 | 6355–70 | 17% | 44 from 23 (1.91/game) |
| Legia | 11 | 23 | 6052–68 | 11% | 47 from 23 (2.04/game) |
| Pogon Szczecin | 10 | 21 | 5850–65 | 5% | 49 from 24 (2.04/game) |
Below 1%: Wisla, GKS Katowice, Jagiellonia, Piast Gliwice, Zaglebie, Korona Kielce, Cracovia, Wisla Plock, Motor Lublin, Rakow, Widzew Lodz, Wieczysta Krakow, Slask Wroclaw, Radomiak Radom.
What does each club need?
Pick a club and test how many points from its remaining games are needed to win the league.
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How these chances are made
A Dixon-Coles model rates every club's attack and defence from the league's results, then the 209 remaining scheduled fixtures are played out 10,000 times. A club's chance is the share of those seasons in which it finishes first. The points line is what the club finishing 2nd ended on in each run; ties on points count as a coin flip (goal difference decides them). Point deductions, head-to-head rules and play-offs are not modelled. A statistical projection, not a tip.
The model's match probabilities are scored in public on the calibration record. Free to republish with credit and a link (CC BY 4.0).