Ekstraklasa predicted table 2026/27
Poland · The rest of the season simulated 10,000 times · updated 23 October 2026
- Lech Poznan are the most likely Ekstraklasa champions, finishing first in 64% of 10,000 simulations (projected 69 points; Gornik Zabrze next on 17%).
- Radomiak Radom (71%), Slask Wroclaw (62%) are more likely than not to finish in the bottom 3 places.
- Jagiellonia sit 12th today but are projected to finish 7th — the model rates them well above their current position.
| # | Team | P | Pts now | Proj. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lech Poznan | 10 | 25 | 6961–76 | 64% | 98% | 0% | 1st (64%) |
| 2 | Gornik Zabrze | 11 | 26 | 6355–70 | 17% | 84% | 0% | 2nd (31%) |
| 3 | Legia | 11 | 23 | 6052–68 | 11% | 77% | <1% | 3rd (24%) |
| 4 | Pogon Szczecin | 10 | 21 | 5850–65 | 5% | 60% | 0% | 4th (22%) |
| 5 | Wisla | 11 | 18 | 5345–61 | <1% | 26% | <1% | 5th (16%) |
| 6 | GKS Katowice | 11 | 18 | 5244–60 | <1% | 25% | <1% | 5th (16%) |
| 7 | Jagiellonia | 10 | 12 | 4941–57 | <1% | 12% | 1% | 7th (13%) |
| 8 | Piast Gliwice | 11 | 17 | 4841–56 | <1% | 9% | 1% | 8th (14%) |
| 9 | Zaglebie | 11 | 18 | 4739–54 | <1% | 5% | 3% | 9th (13%) |
| 10 | Korona Kielce | 11 | 15 | 4436–51 | <1% | 2% | 7% | 11th (12%) |
| 11 | Cracovia | 11 | 12 | 4133–48 | 0% | <1% | 15% | 13th (11%) |
| 12 | Wisla Plock | 10 | 14 | 4033–47 | 0% | <1% | 20% | 13th (12%) |
| 13 | Motor Lublin | 11 | 12 | 3931–47 | 0% | <1% | 24% | 14th (12%) |
| 14 | Rakow | 11 | 6 | 3931–47 | 0% | <1% | 26% | 14th (11%) |
| 15 | Widzew Lodz | 11 | 10 | 3730–45 | 0% | <1% | 31% | 15th (13%) |
| 16 | Wieczysta Krakow | 11 | 8 | 3629–44 | 0% | <1% | 39% | 17th (14%) |
| 17 | Slask Wroclaw | 11 | 6 | 3326–41 | 0% | <1% | 62% | 18th (27%) |
| 18 | Radomiak Radom | 11 | 8 | 3225–40 | 0% | 0% | 71% | 18th (36%) |
Order = average final points across all simulations. Proj. pts shows the average and the 10th–90th percentile range. Percentages are the share of simulations in which the club finishes in that zone.
How this table is made
Every club gets an attack and a defence rating from a Dixon-Coles model fitted to the league's results (recent matches weigh more). Each of the 209 remaining scheduled fixtures is then played out 10,000 times by sampling a scoreline from the model, and the final table of each run is recorded. Ties are separated by goal difference, then goals scored; head-to-head rules, point deductions and split rounds are not modelled. This is a statistical projection, not a tip.
How good are the model's probabilities? Its match forecasts are scored publicly, every match, on the calibration record.
Use this table
Free to republish with credit and a link to this page (CC BY 4.0). Journalists: contact@football-charts.com for a club-specific version.
