Zaglebie vs GKS Katowice
Ekstraklasa, Poland · 2026-09-12 · 20:15 CET
DWWLL
LWWWLThe score model made a Zaglebie win the most likely outcome at 37%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 44%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:0) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Zaglebie 1.26 – 1.18 GKS Katowice.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zaglebie win | 36.8% | 35.8% | +1.0% | ✓ |
| Draw | 30.3% | 27.9% | +2.4% | ✗ |
| GKS Katowice win | 32.8% | 36.2% | -3.4% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.2% | 52.6% | -8.4% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23.1% | 32.2% | -9.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 51.2% | 57.5% | -6.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 69.1% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 33.4% | 35.7% | -2.4% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Zaglebie 44.6 / GKS Katowice 37.2 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.