Rakow vs Motor Lublin
Ekstraklasa, Poland · 2026-09-11 · 18:00 CET
WLLLW
LLLDWThe score model made a Rakow win the most likely outcome at 59%, with goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 58%). It finished 2:1 (HT 1:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Rakow 1.99 – 1.03 Motor Lublin.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rakow win | 58.6% | 49.1% | +9.5% | ✓ |
| Draw | 23.7% | 24.5% | -0.9% | ✗ |
| Motor Lublin win | 17.8% | 26.4% | -8.6% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 81.5% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58.1% | 60.9% | -2.9% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35.6% | 40.7% | -5.1% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 56.6% | 62.3% | -5.7% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 74.7% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 40.6% | 41.9% | -1.3% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Rakow 44.8 / Motor Lublin 38.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.