Pogon Szczecin vs Wisla Plock
Ekstraklasa, Poland · 2026-09-07 · 20:30 CET
DDWWW
LDWWLThe score model made a Pogon Szczecin win the most likely outcome at 59%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 43%). It finished 1:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Pogon Szczecin 1.67 – 0.73 Wisla Plock.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pogon Szczecin win | 58.6% | 49.0% | +9.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.4% | 26.1% | +0.4% | ✓ |
| Wisla Plock win | 15.0% | 25.0% | -10.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 70.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43.1% | 53.6% | -10.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.2% | 32.7% | -10.5% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 43.4% | 56.2% | -12.8% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.8% | 36.5% | -6.7% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Pogon Szczecin 43.9 / Wisla Plock 28.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.