Cracovia vs Gornik Zabrze
Ekstraklasa, Poland · 2026-09-06 · 14:45 CET
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WWWDWThe score model made a Cracovia win the most likely outcome at 36%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 44%). It finished 0:1 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Cracovia 1.23 – 1.20 Gornik Zabrze.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cracovia win | 35.6% | 37.9% | -2.3% | ✗ |
| Draw | 30.3% | 27.9% | +2.4% | ✗ |
| Gornik Zabrze win | 34.1% | 34.2% | -0.1% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44.0% | 49.3% | -5.4% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22.9% | 28.6% | -5.7% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 51.0% | 54.8% | -3.8% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 60.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.8% | 33.7% | -9.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Cracovia 45.1 / Gornik Zabrze 44.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.