Widzew Lodz vs Radomiak Radom
Ekstraklasa, Poland · 2026-09-05 · 14:45 CET
DLDDD
DWDLLThe score model made a Widzew Lodz win the most likely outcome at 49%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 53%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Widzew Lodz 1.67 – 1.14 Radomiak Radom.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Widzew Lodz win | 48.5% | 57.6% | -9.1% | ✗ |
| Draw | 26.8% | 23.5% | +3.4% | ✓ |
| Radomiak Radom win | 24.7% | 19.0% | +5.7% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 78.2% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 53.1% | 55.6% | -2.5% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30.9% | 34.5% | -3.6% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 56.3% | 55.1% | +1.2% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.4% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 38.8% | 37.7% | +1.0% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Widzew Lodz 45 / Radomiak Radom 45.1 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.