Motor Lublin vs Legia
Ekstraklasa, Poland · 2026-09-05 · 20:15 CET
DLLLD
DDWDWThe score model made a Legia win the most likely outcome at 42%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). It finished 2:3 (HT 0:1) — the most likely outcome came in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Motor Lublin 1.25 – 1.50 Legia.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Motor Lublin win | 30.1% | 26.4% | +3.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.0% | 26.2% | +1.8% | ✗ |
| Legia win | 41.9% | 47.3% | -5.5% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 77.3% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51.8% | 54.4% | -2.5% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.7% | 33.8% | -4.1% | ✓ |
| Both teams to score | 56.7% | 56.9% | -0.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 77.6% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 44.8% | 36.8% | +7.9% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Motor Lublin 37.7 / Legia 45.3 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.