Rakow vs Gornik Zabrze
Ekstraklasa, Poland · 2026-09-03 · 18:00 CET
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WWWWDThe score model made a Rakow win the most likely outcome at 45%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 47%). It finished 1:2 (HT 0:2) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Rakow 1.48 – 1.06 Gornik Zabrze.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rakow win | 45.5% | 37.7% | +7.7% | ✗ |
| Draw | 28.8% | 27.5% | +1.3% | ✗ |
| Gornik Zabrze win | 25.7% | 34.8% | -9.0% | ✓ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 73.4% | — | — | ✓ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46.6% | 54.6% | -8.0% | ✓ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25.0% | 33.8% | -8.8% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 51.8% | 59.0% | -7.2% | ✓ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 62.8% | — | — | ✓ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 26.3% | 37.0% | -10.7% | ✓ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Rakow 43.6 / Gornik Zabrze 43.4 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.