Chrobry Glogow vs Pogon Siedlce
Division 1, Poland · 2026-09-12 · 15:30 CET
DDLLL
WDWLLThe score model made a Chrobry Glogow win the most likely outcome at 44%, with under 2.5 goals more likely than not (Over 2.5 at 35%). It finished 0:0 (HT 0:0) — the most likely outcome did not come in. Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: Chrobry Glogow 1.25 – 0.86 Pogon Siedlce.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chrobry Glogow win | 44.3% | 48.9% | -4.6% | ✗ |
| Draw | 31.1% | 27.5% | +3.6% | ✓ |
| Pogon Siedlce win | 24.6% | 23.6% | +1.0% | ✗ |
| Over 1.5 goals | 63.1% | — | — | ✗ |
| Over 2.5 goals | 35.2% | 48.3% | -13.1% | ✗ |
| Over 3.5 goals | 16.2% | 28.2% | -11.9% | ✗ |
| Both teams to score | 42.0% | 51.6% | -9.6% | ✗ |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 59.9% | — | — | ✗ |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 23.1% | 32.9% | -9.8% | ✗ |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: Chrobry Glogow 46.5 / Pogon Siedlce 37.9 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open Chrobry Glogow vs Pogon Siedlce in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.