The season in numbers
Blindly backing under 2.5 goals in every match beat the market this season. The other 6 strategies lost — as they usually do.
Podbeskidzie produced performances worth 4 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 31.8' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Chrobry Glogow – Pogon Siedlce2026-09-12 13:30Under 2.5 ✓64.8%vs 54.9%▲ +9.8%- Odra Opole – S. Rzeszow2026-09-13 15:00Under 2.5 ✓55.3%vs 48.8%▲ +6.6%
- Lechia Gdansk – Legnica2026-09-13 12:30Under 1.5 HT68.0%vs 61.7%▲ +6.3%
- Ruch Chorzow – Podbeskidzie2026-09-12 13:30Over 1.5 HT43.0%vs 39.2%▲ +3.8%
- Puszcza – LKS Lodz2026-09-11 18:45Under 2.557.7%vs 56.8%▲ +0.9%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | + | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chrobry Glogow– Pogon Siedlce | 2026-09-12 | 13:30 | Under 2.5 ✓ | 64.8% | 54.9% | ▲ +9.8% | 1.82 | |
| 2 |  Odra Opole– S. Rzeszow | 2026-09-13 | 15:00 | Under 2.5 ✓ | 55.3% | 48.8% | ▲ +6.6% | 2.05 | |
| 3 |  Lechia Gdansk– Legnica | 2026-09-13 | 12:30 | Under 1.5 HT | 68.0% | 61.7% | ▲ +6.3% | 1.62 | |
| 4 |  Ruch Chorzow– Podbeskidzie | 2026-09-12 | 13:30 | Over 1.5 HT | 43.0% | 39.2% | ▲ +3.8% | 2.55 | |
| 5 |  Puszcza– LKS Lodz | 2026-09-11 | 18:45 | Under 2.5 | 57.7% | 56.8% | ▲ +0.9% | 1.76 |
Where the season is heading
straight-line pace · ~27 rounds leftAt their current points pace, Grodzisk M. finish top with ~73 points, but the title race is open: Legnica project within 5 points. The market's biggest argument is with Grodzisk M.: their results pace says ~73 points, the pace of their market prices (xPTS) says ~48 — one of them gives in.
| # | Team | Pts now | Results pace | Market pace | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Grodzisk M. | 15 | 73 | 48 | +25 |
| 2 | Legnica | 14 | 68 | 53 | +15 |
| 3 | LKS Lodz | 12 | 58 | 57 | +2 |
| 4 | Chrobry Glogow | 11 | 53 | 43 | +11 |
| 5 | Arka Gdynia | 11 | 53 | 54 | -1 |
| · · · | |||||
| 16 | Puszcza | 6 | 34 | 44 | -10 |
| 17 | Podbeskidzie | 6 | 29 | 49 | -19 |
| 18 | Skierniewice | 6 | 29 | 43 | -14 |
Straight-line pace over each team's remaining scheduled fixtures — not a simulation. Market pace extrapolates xPTS (the points the market's prices expected so far) the same way. Split and playoff rounds count once they're scheduled.
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<iframe src="https://www.football-charts.com/embed/poland/division-1/projection" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" title="Division 1 live table — Football Charts" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/poland/division-1">Division 1 stats by Football Charts</a></p>
Market strategies
flat stake · vs break-even — not betting adviceWhat blindly backing each market in every Division 1 match would have returned. Losing lines are the norm — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grodzisk M. | 15 | 9.9 | +5.1 | |
| 2 | Legnica | 14 | 10.8 | +3.2 | |
| 3 | LKS Lodz | 12 | 11.7 | +0.3 | |
| 4 | Chrobry Glogow | 11 | 8.8 | +2.2 | |
| 5 | Arka Gdynia | 11 | 11.2 | -0.2 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 16 | Podbeskidzie | 6 | 10.0 | -4.0 | |
| 17 | Puszcza | 6 | 7.8 | -1.8 | |
| 18 | Skierniewice | 6 | 8.9 | -2.9 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisGrodzisk M.15 ptsLegnica14 ptsLKS Lodz12 ptsChrobry Glogow11 ptsArka Gdynia11 pts
Polonia Warszawa10 ptsTermalica B-B.10 ptsRuch Chorzow10 ptsWarta Poznan9 ptsOdra Opole9 pts
Stal Mielec9 ptsPogon Siedlce8 ptsS. Rzeszow8 pts
Polonia Bytom7 ptsLechia Gdansk7 ptsPodbeskidzie6 ptsPuszcza6 ptsSkierniewice6 ptsGo deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+