Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 8 OctBiggest divergence
Odra Opole – Legnica+10.8%
Under 2.5 · data 62% vs market 51%
Fastest starters
Legnica29%
4 of their 14 goals before 15′ — highest share in the league
Late-goal kings
Chrobry Glogow45%
5 of their 11 goals after 75′ — highest share in the league
The season in numbers
Market mispricing
+1.0%HT Under 1.5 paid out more than the market charged: +1.0% at market prices across 80 matches. The other 6 markets returned less than they cost — the bookmaker margin at work.
Most underrated by results
-4.6 ptsPodbeskidzie produced performances worth 5 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Fast starts
31%Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 31.4' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →
Odra Opole – Legnica2026-10-11 18:15Under 2.5Model 61.6%Implied 50.8%▲ +10.8%- Podbeskidzie – Pogon Siedlce2026-10-09 18:30Under 2.5Model 60.0%Implied 50.5%▲ +9.5%
- Pogon Siedlce – Puszcza2026-10-15 16:30Under 2.5Model 69.1%Implied 59.9%▲ +9.2%
- Arka Gdynia – Polonia Warszawa2026-10-10 13:30Home winModel 49.8%Implied 45.7%▲ +4.1%
- Chrobry Glogow – Grodzisk M.2026-10-10 13:30Under 2.5Model 53.9%Implied 50.8%▲ +3.1%
- LKS Lodz – Ruch Chorzow2026-10-11 12:30Home winModel 45.5%Implied 42.6%▲ +2.9%
- S. Rzeszow – Lechia Gdansk2026-10-12 16:00Away winModel 49.3%Implied 47.4%▲ +1.9%
- Puszcza – Polonia Bytom2026-10-11 15:00Over 1.5 HTModel 40.7%Implied 39.2%▲ +1.5%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Odra Opole– Legnica | 2026-10-11 | 18:15 | Under 2.5 | 61.6% | 50.8% | ▲ +10.8% | 1.97 |
| 2 |  Podbeskidzie– Pogon Siedlce | 2026-10-09 | 18:30 | Under 2.5 | 60.0% | 50.5% | ▲ +9.5% | 1.98 |
| 3 | Pogon Siedlce– Puszcza | 2026-10-15 | 16:30 | Under 2.5 | 69.1% | 59.9% | ▲ +9.2% | 1.67 |
| 4 |  Arka Gdynia– Polonia Warszawa | 2026-10-10 | 13:30 | Home win | 49.8% | 45.7% | ▲ +4.1% | 2.19 |
| 5 |  Chrobry Glogow– Grodzisk M. | 2026-10-10 | 13:30 | Under 2.5 | 53.9% | 50.8% | ▲ +3.1% | 1.97 |
| 6 |  LKS Lodz– Ruch Chorzow | 2026-10-11 | 12:30 | Home win | 45.5% | 42.6% | ▲ +2.9% | 2.35 |
| 7 |  S. Rzeszow– Lechia Gdansk | 2026-10-12 | 16:00 | Away win | 49.3% | 47.4% | ▲ +1.9% | 2.11 |
| 8 | Puszcza– Polonia Bytom | 2026-10-11 | 15:00 | Over 1.5 HT | 40.7% | 39.2% | ▲ +1.5% | 2.55 |
Add Division 1 fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 8 OctWe simulate the remaining Division 1 schedule 10,000 times a day. Termalica B-B. win the 2026-2027 title in 27% of them, projecting ~57 points; LKS Lodz are next at 17%. At the other end, Skierniewice finish in the bottom three in 58% of simulations.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Termalica B-B. | 16 | 57 | 49–65 | 27% | 69% | <1% |
| 2 | LKS Lodz | 15 | 55 | 47–63 | 17% | 58% | <1% |
| 3 | Grodzisk M. | 18 | 54 | 46–63 | 14% | 53% | <1% |
| 4 | Lechia Gdansk | 13 | 54 | 45–62 | 12% | 49% | <1% |
| 5 | Arka Gdynia | 11 | 53 | 45–61 | 11% | 46% | <1% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 16 |  Stal Mielec | 9 | 37 | 29–45 | <1% | <1% | 51% |
| 17 | Podbeskidzie | 8 | 37 | 29–45 | <1% | <1% | 52% |
| 18 | Skierniewice | 10 | 36 | 29–44 | <1% | <1% | 58% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 226 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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<iframe src="https://www.football-charts.com/embed/poland/division-1/projection" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" title="Division 1 live table — Football Charts" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/poland/division-1">Division 1 stats by Football Charts</a></p>
Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every Division 1 match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
HT Under 1.5▲ +1.0%
at market prices · 80 matcheschart →
HT Under 1.5 in Division 1, 2026-2027: across 80 matches the market's prices paid out +1.0% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Home wins▼ −0.0%
at market prices · 80 matcheschart →
Home wins in Division 1, 2026-2027: across 80 matches the market's prices paid out −0.0% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Draws▼ −0.0%
at market prices · 80 matcheschart →
Draws in Division 1, 2026-2027: across 80 matches the market's prices paid out −0.0% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Under 2.5 goals▼ −0.8%
at market prices · 80 matcheschart →
Under 2.5 goals in Division 1, 2026-2027: across 80 matches the market's prices paid out −0.8% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Over 2.5 goals▼ −15.4%
at market prices · 80 matcheschart →
Over 2.5 goals in Division 1, 2026-2027: across 80 matches the market's prices paid out −15.4% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Away wins▼ −15.8%
at market prices · 80 matcheschart →
Away wins in Division 1, 2026-2027: across 80 matches the market's prices paid out −15.8% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.HT Over 1.5▼ −21.0%
at market prices · 80 matcheschart →
HT Over 1.5 in Division 1, 2026-2027: across 80 matches the market's prices paid out −21.0% of what they cost. The line is the cumulative gap between price and outcome.Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grodzisk M. | 18 | 12.3 | +5.7 | |
| 2 | Termalica B-B. | 16 | 13.1 | +2.9 | |
| 3 | Warta Poznan | 15 | 11.5 | +3.5 | |
| 4 | LKS Lodz | 15 | 14.8 | +0.2 | |
| 5 | Legnica | 14 | 14.0 | -0.0 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 16 | Stal Mielec | 9 | 12.3 | -3.3 | |
| 17 | Podbeskidzie | 8 | 12.6 | -4.6 | |
| 18 | Puszcza | 6 | 10.1 | -4.1 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysisGrodzisk M.18 ptsTermalica B-B.16 ptsWarta Poznan15 ptsLKS Lodz15 ptsLegnica14 ptsPolonia Warszawa14 ptsS. Rzeszow14 ptsLechia Gdansk13 ptsChrobry Glogow12 ptsPogon Siedlce12 ptsRuch Chorzow12 ptsArka Gdynia11 ptsSkierniewice10 ptsOdra Opole9 ptsPolonia Bytom9 ptsStal Mielec9 ptsPodbeskidzie8 ptsPuszcza6 ptsGo deeper
1X2 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 2.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartOver/Under 1.5 Bankroll Trackerfull interactive chartFirst Goal Time Trackerfull interactive chartTeam Goal Zones Heat Mapfull interactive chartPerformance vs Marketpoints vs xPTSGoals Tablescoring breakdownOdds archive · €296 seasons of open/close odds, every bookmaker
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+