Season races
10,000 simulations · updated 27 OctThe season in numbers
HT Under 1.5 paid out more than the market charged: +0.4% at market prices across 108 matches. 1 other market also came out ahead; the rest returned less than they cost.
Arka Gdynia produced performances worth 4 more points than they collected, by market expectations — full performance table →
Share of matches with two or more first-half goals. First goals arrive after 33.6' on average.
Upcoming fixtures — data vs market
all leagues →Lechia Gdansk – Skierniewice2026-10-31 14:30
Under 1.5 HTModel 70.4%Implied 58.8%▲ +11.5%Grodzisk M. – Stal Mielec2026-10-30 19:30
Home winModel 56.3%Implied 47.8%▲ +8.4%LKS Lodz – Polonia Warszawa2026-11-02 19:30
Home winModel 44.4%Implied 40.7%▲ +3.8%Polonia Bytom – Odra Opole2026-11-02 17:00
BTTS: NoModel 49.5%Implied 46.7%▲ +2.8%S. Rzeszow – Puszcza2026-11-02 19:30
BTTS: NoModel 43.5%Implied 43.5%▲ +0.1%
| # | Time | Market | Implied | Odds | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lechia Gdansk– Skierniewice | 2026-10-31 | 14:30 | Under 1.5 HT | 70.4% | 58.8% | ▲ +11.5% | 1.70 |
| 2 | Grodzisk M.– Stal Mielec | 2026-10-30 | 19:30 | Home win | 56.3% | 47.8% | ▲ +8.4% | 2.09 |
| 3 | LKS Lodz– Polonia Warszawa | 2026-11-02 | 19:30 | Home win | 44.4% | 40.7% | ▲ +3.8% | 2.46 |
| 4 | Polonia Bytom– Odra Opole | 2026-11-02 | 17:00 | BTTS: No | 49.5% | 46.7% | ▲ +2.8% | 2.14 |
| 5 | S. Rzeszow– Puszcza | 2026-11-02 | 19:30 | BTTS: No | 43.5% | 43.5% | ▲ +0.1% | 2.30 |
Add Division 1 fixtures to your calendar
Every fixture this season, updated automatically: kick-off changes, postponements, and after each match the score, half-time score and goal minutes.
Where the season is heading
10,000 simulations · updated 27 OctWe simulate the remaining Division 1 schedule 10,000 times a day. Termalica B-B. win the 2026-2027 title in 17% of them, projecting ~56 points; LKS Lodz are next at 16%. At the other end, Skierniewice finish in the bottom three in 73% of simulations. Biggest move after the latest results: LKS Lodz's title chance up 4 points in a day.
| # | Team | Pts now | Proj. pts | Range | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Termalica B-B. | 20 | 56 | 48–64 | ▼17% | 57% | <1% |
| 2 | LKS Lodz | 21 | 56 | 48–63 | ▲16% | 55% | <1% |
| 3 | Lechia Gdansk | 19 | 55 | 47–63 | ▼16% | 55% | <1% |
| 4 | Ruch Chorzow | 21 | 55 | 47–63 | 15% | 53% | <1% |
| 5 | Polonia Warszawa | 21 | 54 | 46–62 | 10% | 45% | <1% |
| · · · | |||||||
| 16 | Odra Opole | 12 | 38 | 30–45 | <1% | <1% | 46% |
| 17 | Stal Mielec | 13 | 37 | 30–45 | <1% | <1% | 52% |
| 18 | Skierniewice | 11 | 34 | 27–41 | — | <1% | 73% |
Dixon-Coles model, 10,000 simulations of the 198 remaining scheduled fixtures · tiebreakers points > GD > GF · updated daily.
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<iframe src="https://www.football-charts.com/embed/poland/division-1/projection" width="100%" height="560" style="border:0;border-radius:8px" title="Division 1 live table — Football Charts" loading="lazy"></iframe> <p style="font-size:12px"><a href="https://www.football-charts.com/leagues/poland/division-1">Division 1 stats by Football Charts</a></p>
Market vs results
line = cumulative gap between price and outcomeHow each market's prices compared with what happened in every Division 1 match. Above zero, the outcome came in more often than the average price implied; most lines sit below — that's the bookmaker margin at work.
Table — points vs market expectations
full table →| # | Team | Pts | xPTS | Δ | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Grodzisk M. | 21 | 15.4 | +5.6 | |
| 2 | Polonia Warszawa | 21 | 19.3 | +1.7 | |
| 3 | Ruch Chorzow | 21 | 19.5 | +1.5 | |
| 4 | LKS Lodz | 21 | 19.4 | +1.6 | |
| 5 | Termalica B-B. | 20 | 17.6 | +2.4 | |
| · · · | |||||
| 16 | Puszcza | 12 | 15.1 | -3.1 | |
| 17 | Odra Opole | 12 | 15.7 | -3.7 | |
| 18 | Skierniewice | 11 | 15.3 | -4.3 | |
Teams
per-team stats, goal timing & market analysis
Grodzisk M.21 pts
Polonia Warszawa21 pts
Ruch Chorzow21 pts
LKS Lodz21 ptsTermalica B-B.20 ptsLechia Gdansk19 pts
Legnica18 ptsWarta Poznan18 pts
Polonia Bytom18 pts
S. Rzeszow17 pts
Pogon Siedlce15 ptsArka Gdynia14 ptsPodbeskidzie14 pts
Chrobry Glogow13 pts
Stal Mielec13 pts
Puszcza12 pts
Odra Opole12 ptsSkierniewice11 ptsGo deeper
Past seasons
completed-season tables, charts & market backtestsStatistics, not betting advice · the market usually knows why · 18+


