S. Rzeszow vs Puszcza
Division 1, Poland · 2026-11-02 · 20:30 CET
WWLWL
LLWLWThe score model makes a Puszcza win the most likely outcome at 40%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 52%). The data's biggest gap to the market: Under 3.5 goals — 70.1% vs 65.0% implied (+5.1 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: S. Rzeszow 1.32 – 1.44 Puszcza.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| S. Rzeszow win | 33.8% | 36.7% | -2.9% |
| Draw | 26.5% | 27.3% | -0.7% |
| Puszcza win | 39.7% | 36.1% | +3.6% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 76.8% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 52.1% | 54.9% | -2.8% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29.9% | 35.0% | -5.1% |
| Both teams to score | 56.5% | 60.1% | -3.6% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 73.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 37.6% | 37.1% | +0.5% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: S. Rzeszow 46.4 / Puszcza 32 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open S. Rzeszow vs Puszcza in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.