LKS Lodz vs Polonia Warszawa
Division 1, Poland · 2026-11-02 · 20:30 CET
WLLWW
DWWWDThe score model makes an LKS Lodz win the most likely outcome at 44%, split on goals (Over 2.5 at 50%). The data's biggest gap to the market: HT under 1.5 goals — 70.7% vs 61.5% implied (+9.2 pts). Generated from the data — the market usually knows why it disagrees.
Scoreline probabilities
Priced from the same score distribution as every market below.
First goal · head-to-head
Full Market Baseline (Dixon-Coles)
One statistical model of the final score — every probability below derives from the same score distribution, so they can never contradict each other. Expected goals: LKS Lodz 1.51 – 1.18 Polonia Warszawa.
| Market | Data % | Implied | Divergence |
|---|---|---|---|
| LKS Lodz win | 44.4% | 36.6% | +7.9% |
| Draw | 26.5% | 26.4% | +0.1% |
| Polonia Warszawa win | 29.0% | 37.0% | -8.0% |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75.5% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50.5% | 53.2% | -2.7% |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28.4% | 33.5% | -5.1% |
| Both teams to score | 54.5% | 56.5% | -2.0% |
| HT over 0.5 goals | 66.0% | — | — |
| HT over 1.5 goals | 29.3% | 38.5% | -9.2% |
Model dc_v2.0 · rating sample: LKS Lodz 41.6 / Polonia Warszawa 44.8 weighted matches · positive divergence means the model sits above the market — descriptive, not a recommendation; the market usually knows why.
Open LKS Lodz vs Polonia Warszawa in the interactive Dixon–Coles & Asian Handicap calculator →
How to read this page: probabilities are what this league's historical first-goal-time and scoring data alone imply — they know nothing about injuries, motivation or weather, and the market usually does. We publish every output, including when the data and the market agree. Statistics, not betting advice — never bet more than you can afford to lose.